Random: Constrained by context.

Random processes, in the real world are constrained by context. Shaping that context gives you some control. The outcome is not “just random”.

Continuing to explore my many stories about complex systems. See this first post for an introduction

Creationists argue that life could not have arisen by random processes. This would be obviously true if “random” meant that all outcomes are equally likely. But that is not true. Life did evolve by a random process. The piece they are missing is this: in a complex system, the probability of an outcome is strongly constrained by context.

Knowing this greatly changes your estimate of some outcome happening. And gives you some control over things that are “just random”. In everyday life we are quite familiar with random processes that are constrained. Pour some water into a cup. The movement of individual water molecules is fairly random. But the surrounding physical reality, the cup, constrains the places the molecules can go, and gives a predictable outcome.

It’s only fairly recently I have come to appreciate the concept of constraint, and the control it gives me over my life. While I can’t demand a particular outcome from a complex system, I can make choices that constrain those outcomes. A simple example would be choosing the time I leave for the airport to catch a flight.

There is some chance of an unexpected delay on the way to the airport. These are somewhat random. How early I leave for the airport does constrain the impact of those random events. Leave early and a delay might just mean less time waiting at the airport. Leave at the last minute, and any delay could mean a missed flight. Constraints affect outcomes, but don’t control them. Constraints cost effort. Leaving early means waiting time at the airport, but a better chance of catching your flight.

In a simple world, aiming for a target is a good strategy. Hitting the target is a win, missing it is a fail. Getting the right answer to a simple math problem is a good example of this. There is only one way to add up a bill correctly. In a complex world, that strategy can leave you feeling powerless. You are not likely to hit the exact target you are aiming for.

In a complex world, shaping the space is a better strategy than aiming for a target. Shaping the space of possibility. Often, you can’t force an outcome, but you can constrain the possibilities. Wearing a seatbelt doesn’t prevent crashes, but it does change the space of possible outcomes. Driving drunk does not guarantee a crash, but does increase the chances.

That, for me, is how to exert power in a complex world. Even random events are constrained by the context they occur in. And I have some power to shape that context. That shaping in turn tilts the odds. I’ve found that thinking in terms of shaping a space of possibility has given me more agency in my life. I hope that works for you.

In many big choices in life, getting a degree, choosing a living space, the space of possibility gets huge, hard to grasp. Finding some way to shape that space can require superhuman abilities. Fortunately, such help may be at hand, the “Oracle AI”. But that is a subject for another Substack post.

See the first post for an introduction to this series. See the home page for previous posts on the topic. Of particular relevance is this one on Politics and Control. For more about the author, see the About page.