Decision: Right, Wrong, or the best you can do?

For complex systems, one story does not make all other stories false. Similarly, for complex decisions, there isn’t one right decision that makes all other choices wrong.

Continuing to explore my many stories about complex systems. See this first post for an introduction.

For complex systems, one story does not make all other stories false. Similarly, for complex decisions, there isn’t one right decision that makes all other choices wrong. In a straightforward system, results can be predictable and guaranteed positive. In complex systems you can get unintended consequences, some of them negative.

In my view, this is a feature of complex systems, not a bug. Trying to eliminate every negative result is a recipe for frustration. Assume there will be negative outcomes, and adapt to them. The good news is, negative outcomes in a complex system may lead to positive unintended consequences further down the chain. In a simple system, once you have done it wrong there is no recovery.

Planning a trip can be a complex task. Some step in the plan may fail unexpectedly. You miss the train, then your onward connection. Annoying. But in a complex world, I’ve seen such a delay save me from a bad outcome, or give me an unexpected positive opportunity. I wouldn’t want to live in a simple world in which everything always went to plan.

With complex decisions, comes guaranteed uncertainty. Sometimes you will get an undesired outcome. Often portrayed as getting it wrong. Maybe so. But dig deeper, and there are two very different things referred to as “making the wrong decision”. One is where you misinterpret the information you have. That you can learn from. The other is that information you had no access to changed the outcome. I would claim that you took the best decision in that case. No better decision was possible. You cannot demand that your decision forces the Universe to comply with your expectations. Reality wins in the end.

My contention is that a “wrong” decision is one for which you misjudged the information you had. Unknown factors or random chance don’t count. When the dice are against me, I would say I guessed wrong, not that I made the wrong choice. So there are no wrong choices on a Lotto ticket; your choice had zero effect on the result. I find that viewpoint empowering. Only take responsibility for the elements you can control or influence.

Even when the result depends on chance, you often still have some influence. You can shape the odds in your favor. Delay a decision until some of those random chances are revealed. Make contingency plans for some of the likely undesired outcomes. Keep some track of your batting average, and plan accordingly. When travelling, I keep some track of how early I turn up at the airport, and how close that brings me to missing the plane. Most of the time I end up killing time at the airport, but now and then it really pays off.

I read a headline in the Guardian claiming that “Indecision leads to better decisions”. I don’t think the content of the article fully supported the headline, but there was some truth in it. Indecision included both “I like to delay taking decisions” and “I worry about taking the wrong decision”. Two very different things. Delaying decisions can bring more information, and allow for some of the dice to be thrown. Often a good idea. On the other hand, once I have taken a decision I aim not to worry about it being wrong. Unless new information turns up, I have done the best I can do.

Reading the detail of the study, the trait that correlated with taking better decisions was “ambivalence” rather than the “indecision” of the headline. Ambivalence is seeing both sides of an argument, and allowing both to have some truth in them. For me, much “indecision“ comes from demanding that one side of the argument is totally true, and the other side false. A great stance when doing math. When handling complex systems, it leads to frustrating flip flopping, because neither story is entirely true. I find relaxing the need to be totally right makes complex decisions easier to take. I hope that works for you.